Greenland is suddenly a hot topic again. The Trump administration wants it—badly. Reports suggest the White House is considering $100,000 payments to each resident, a $6 billion plan to win hearts and minds. Trump has even hinted that "international law may not be necessary."
Bold rhetoric aside, what does this mean for defense stocks? We dug into the S&P 500 data to find out.
The Big Picture: Four Defense Giants Compared
RTX is pulling ahead of the pack. Lockheed is struggling with margins. Here's how the numbers break down:
Company | Market Cap | Revenue Growth | Profit Growth | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RTX | $270.7B | +11.9% | +24.4% | 7.67% |
Lockheed Martin | $136.0B | +8.8% | +6.5% | 5.73% |
General Dynamics | $99.2B | +10.6% | +12.7% | 8.18% |
Northrop Grumman | $95.5B | +4.3% | +10.9% | 9.82% |
What stands out: RTX posted the strongest revenue growth at +11.9% and expanded its margins by over a full percentage point. Northrop leads on profitability with a 9.82% net margin—but its growth is the slowest in the group.
The Lockheed Question
Lockheed Martin is the name most people associate with defense. But the numbers tell a different story.
Over the past three years, Lockheed's profits have actually declined at a -5.6% annual rate—even as revenue grew. That margin compression is real: net margin dropped from 8.69% in 2023 to 5.73% today.
Last quarter looked like a turnaround—profit jumped 251% from the prior quarter. But context matters. Q2 2025 was a disaster with just 1.88% net margin. Q3's recovery to 8.7% is a return to normal, not a breakout.
Who's Actually Growing?
Three-year compound growth rates reveal the long game:
Company | Revenue CAGR | Profit CAGR |
|---|---|---|
General Dynamics | +6.6% | +4.4% |
RTX | +6.4% | +5.9% |
Northrop Grumman | +3.9% | +6.7% |
Lockheed Martin | +2.5% | -5.6% |
General Dynamics and RTX show the most balanced growth profiles. Northrop is squeezing more profit from slower revenue growth. Lockheed is the outlier—growing the top line but losing ground on the bottom.
Stock Performance vs. Fundamentals
Here's how share prices moved over the past 12 months:
Company | Price Change | Revenue Growth | Margin Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
RTX | +54.9% | +11.9% | Improving |
General Dynamics | +43.5% | +10.6% | Stable |
Northrop Grumman | +34.4% | +4.3% | Improving |
Lockheed Martin | +24.8% | +8.8% | Declining |
RTX's stock gain aligns with its fundamentals. Lockheed's slower appreciation reflects its margin challenges.
The Albemarle Puzzle
Greenland coverage often mentions rare earth miners. Albemarle keeps popping up. But here's the disconnect:
The stock soared +106% over 12 months. Meanwhile, the actual business is shrinking.
Metric | What Happened |
|---|---|
Revenue | Down 3.5% year-over-year |
3-Year Revenue Trend | Down 9.8% annually |
Current Profitability | Net loss of $21 million |
Latest Quarter | Lost $160.7 million |
Revenue collapsed from $7.3 billion in 2023 to under $5 billion today. The company swung from $2.7 billion profit to a loss. Yet the stock doubled.
What the News Is Saying
We analyzed 30 days of coverage across these stocks:
Lockheed (36 articles): Aerospace materials market growth dominates the narrative. Projected to hit $91B by 2035.
Northrop (19 articles): Positive coverage on space operations and drone market expansion. Some supply chain concerns noted.
General Dynamics (15 articles): Mixed sentiment. Growth drivers cited, but valuation concerns raised.
RTX (12 articles): Focus on acquisition synergies from TransDigm deal.
The Bottom Line
Greenland makes for dramatic headlines. The fundamentals are more mundane—but more useful.
RTX is delivering on both growth and margins. General Dynamics offers consistency. Northrop leads on profitability. Lockheed has work to do.
And Albemarle? The stock says one thing. The financials say another.
Data source: Quatable S&P 500 Analysis (Updated 2026-01-19)
Quatable LINK:
https://quatable.net/stocks/NOC
https://quatable.net/stocks/RTX
https://quatable.net/stocks/LMT
https://quatable.net/stocks/GD